Arbeitspapier
How good are banks' forecasts?
We analyse the ftnancial forecasts small and medium-sized German banks provided in several waves of a quantitative survey, called LIRES, and compare them with the results the banks actually realized. Based on this unique data set, we ftnd that the predictions are relevant, especially concerning the net interest income for the next year, and persistent, but neither unbiased nor rational. We also ftnd slight evidence for a positive relationship between planning and performance, i.e. banks whose predictions are more accurate tend to have a higher return on assets. Looking at the forecasts made just before the end of the low-interest rate environment, we observe that the explanatory power of predictions went down.
- ISBN
-
978-3-95729-972-7
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 03/2024
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- Thema
-
Forecasts
Banks
Quantitative Survey (LIRES)
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Heckmann, Lotta
Memmel, Christoph
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2024
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Heckmann, Lotta
- Memmel, Christoph
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2024
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