Arbeitspapier
How informative are central bank assessments of macroeconomic risks?
Surveying the forecasting practice of several central banks, we find that all these banks issue statements about risks to their macroeconomic forecasts. Often the balance of these risks is assessed as well. Upward [downward] risks to the forecast commonly imply that the outturn is expected to lie above [below] the central forecast. Investigating the inflation risk forecasts of the Bank of England and the Sveriges Riksbank, however, we do not find conclusive evidence for informativeness, that is, for a systematic connection between risk assessments and forecast errors. Thus, it seems questionable whether macroeconomic risk forecasts are meaningful.
- ISBN
-
978-3-86558-721-3
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2011,13
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Hypothesis Testing: General
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
forecast evaluation
risk forecasts
inflation forecasts
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Knüppel, Malte
Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2011
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Knüppel, Malte
- Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2011
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