Will Portugal turn into a second Greece?

Bericht

Current economic developments in Portugal do not portend well. The Portuguese GDP is shrinking and the growth forecast for 2012 is gloomy - in the EU only the forecast for Greece is even worse (Figure 1). Moreover, Portugal is now having to pay double-digit interest rates on its bonds, its debt ratio exceeds 100 p.c. of GDP, its unemploy-ment rate is knocking on 15 p.c., and its current account deficit continues to remain high. All of these things not only indicate that Portugal is in a serious economic crisis. They also conjure up parallels to Greece's economic plunge. Thus, it is not surprising that many expect that Portugal will turn into a second Greece. But is this expectation really well founded? We think the answer to this question is no. A careful analysis of the crisis in Portugal shows that it is different from the crisis in Greece. Portugal has a better chance of avoiding economic collapse than Greece.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Kiel Policy Brief ; No. 42

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft
• Subject: Wirtschaftskrise ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Leistungsbilanz ; Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Zins ; Risikoprämie ; Portugal

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Schrader, Klaus ; Laaser, Claus-Friedrich
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 2012

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/56378
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET