Bericht
Will Portugal turn into a second Greece?
Current economic developments in Portugal do not portend well. The Portuguese GDP is shrinking and the growth forecast for 2012 is gloomy - in the EU only the forecast for Greece is even worse (Figure 1). Moreover, Portugal is now having to pay double-digit interest rates on its bonds, its debt ratio exceeds 100 p.c. of GDP, its unemploy-ment rate is knocking on 15 p.c., and its current account deficit continues to remain high. All of these things not only indicate that Portugal is in a serious economic crisis. They also conjure up parallels to Greece's economic plunge. Thus, it is not surprising that many expect that Portugal will turn into a second Greece. But is this expectation really well founded? We think the answer to this question is no. A careful analysis of the crisis in Portugal shows that it is different from the crisis in Greece. Portugal has a better chance of avoiding economic collapse than Greece.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Kiel Policy Brief ; No. 42
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Wirtschaftskrise
Öffentliche Schulden
Leistungsbilanz
Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht
Arbeitslosigkeit
Zins
Risikoprämie
Portugal
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Schrader, Klaus
Laaser, Claus-Friedrich
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- (wo)
-
Kiel
- (wann)
-
2012
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Bericht
Beteiligte
- Schrader, Klaus
- Laaser, Claus-Friedrich
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Entstanden
- 2012