Is potential output growth falling?

Arbeitspapier

We document differences between the evolution of a measure of potential output growth and the evolution of a measure of potential output per capita growth using time-varying parameter models estimated for four advanced economies (Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). The evidence supports the view that most of the slowdown in potential output growth occurred prior to the Great Recession. However, the potential output per capita growth rate: 1) remained relatively constant in Canada; and 2) decreased less (more) than the potential output growth rate in Germany and the United States (in the United Kingdom). These results indicate that: 1) the decline in potential output growth in Canada is mainly associated with the decrease in population growth; and 2) the decrease in population growth is an important factor in order to explain the decline in potential output in Germany and the United States, but not in the United Kingdom.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 2017-03

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models ; Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
• Subject: Potential output growth rate ; Potential output per capita growth rate ; Rates of growth consistent with a constant unemployment rate

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): The University of Utah, Department of Economics
• (where): Salt Lake City, UT
• (when): 2017

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/180961
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET