Arbeitspapier
Assessing global potential output growth: October 2020
This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report. More specifically, global potential output growth is expected to decline from 3.3 percent in 2019 to 2.1 percent in 2020 and then recover gradually to 2.7 percent by 2022. While growth is expected to decline in all regions, the negative effects of COVID-19 on trend labour productivity growth in emerging market economies are the largest contributor to the overall expected slowdown in global growth. This also reflects Bank of Canada staff's assessments of ongoing headwinds from aging, trade tensions and structurally low trend total factor productivity growth across all regions. A partial recovery in all regions is expected to be driven mainly by the gradual recovery in trend total factor productivity growth and trend labour input growth. In the US, potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in 2020, mostly due to a decline in the trend participation rate and a reduction in the growth rate of immigration. By 2022, US potential output growth is expected to partially recover due to an improvement in trend total factor productivity growth and a modest recovery in trend labour input growth.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper ; No. 2020-10
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
General Aggregative Models: General
Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data)
- Subject
-
Potential output
Productivity
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Chen, Xin Scott
Jaffery, Ali
Nolin, Guillaume
Salhab, Karim
Shannon, Peter
Sarker, Subrata
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Bank of Canada
- (where)
-
Ottawa
- (when)
-
2021
- DOI
-
doi:10.34989/sdp-2020-10
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Chen, Xin Scott
- Jaffery, Ali
- Nolin, Guillaume
- Salhab, Karim
- Shannon, Peter
- Sarker, Subrata
- Bank of Canada
Time of origin
- 2021
Other Objects (12)
Financial conditions and the money-output relationship in Canada
Technology adoption in input-output networks
An alternative estimate of Canadian potential output: The multivariate state-space framework
Assessing vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies
Assessing the implementation of the IMF's 2007 surveillance decision
Real-financial linkages in the Canadian economy: An input-output approach
Assessing the Business Outlook Survey indicator using real-time data
Assessing the impact of demand shocks on the US term premium
Central Bank digital currencies: A framework for assessing why and how
Capital-goods imports and US growth
Growth in emerging market economies and the commodity boom of 2003 - 2008: Evidence from growth forecast revisions
Assessing indexation-based Calvo inflation models
Financial conditions and the money-output relationship in Canada
Technology adoption in input-output networks
An alternative estimate of Canadian potential output: The multivariate state-space framework
Assessing vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies
Assessing the implementation of the IMF's 2007 surveillance decision
Real-financial linkages in the Canadian economy: An input-output approach
Assessing the Business Outlook Survey indicator using real-time data
Assessing the impact of demand shocks on the US term premium
Central Bank digital currencies: A framework for assessing why and how
Capital-goods imports and US growth
Growth in emerging market economies and the commodity boom of 2003 - 2008: Evidence from growth forecast revisions
Assessing indexation-based Calvo inflation models
Financial conditions and the money-output relationship in Canada
Technology adoption in input-output networks
An alternative estimate of Canadian potential output: The multivariate state-space framework
Assessing vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies
Assessing the implementation of the IMF's 2007 surveillance decision
Real-financial linkages in the Canadian economy: An input-output approach
Assessing the Business Outlook Survey indicator using real-time data
Assessing the impact of demand shocks on the US term premium
Central Bank digital currencies: A framework for assessing why and how
Capital-goods imports and US growth
Growth in emerging market economies and the commodity boom of 2003 - 2008: Evidence from growth forecast revisions