Are long-run output growth rates falling?

Arbeitspapier

This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and a Heckman-type two-step estimation procedure that deals with the possible endogeneity problem in the econometric models. The results show a significant decline in long-run growth rates that is not associated with the detrimental effects of the Great Recession, and that the rate of growth of labour productivity appears to be behind the slowdown in long-run GDP growth.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 2018-02

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models ; Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence ; Statistical Simulation Methods: General ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
• Subject: long-run output growth rates ; unobserved components ; Kalman filter ; timevarying parameter models ; stochastic volatility ; Heckman two-step bias correction

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Li, Mengheng ; Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): The University of Utah, Department of Economics
• (where): Salt Lake City, UT
• (when): 2018

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/180955
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET