Arbeitspapier

Nonlinear shrinkage of the covariance matrix for portfolio selection: Markowitz meets Goldilocks

Markowitz (1952) portfolio selection requires estimates of (i) the vector of expected returns and (ii) the covariance matrix of returns. Many proposals to address the first question exist already. This paper addresses the second question. We promote a new nonlinear shrinkage estimator of the covariance matrix that is more flexible than previous linear shrinkage estimators and has 'just the right number' of free parameters (that is, the Goldilocks principle). In a stylized setting, the nonlinear shrinkage estimator is asymptotically optimal for portfolio selection. In addition to theoretical analysis, we establish superior real-life performance of our new estimator using backtest exercises.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Working Paper ; No. 137

Classification
Wirtschaft
Estimation: General
Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
Subject
Large-dimensional asymptotics
Markowitz portfolio selection
nonlinear shrinkage

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Ledoit, Olivier
Wolf, Michael
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
University of Zurich, Department of Economics
(where)
Zurich
(when)
2014

DOI
doi:10.5167/uzh-90273
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Ledoit, Olivier
  • Wolf, Michael
  • University of Zurich, Department of Economics

Time of origin

  • 2014

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