Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from survey microdata

Arbeitspapier

There is a growing interest in studying the disagreement of economic agents. Most studies, however, focus on the disagreement regarding one specific variable, hereby neglecting that disagreement may be comoving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper we explore to which extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the future interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well as news on money and credit conditions significantly influence disagreement.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: DEP (Socioeconomics) Discussion Papers - Macroeconomics and Finance Series ; No. 3/2015

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Expectations; Speculations ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
• Thema: disagreement ; inflation expectations ; microdata

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Dräger, Lena ; Lamla, Michael J.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Hamburg University, Department Socioeconomics
• (wo): Hamburg
• (wann): 2015

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/120856
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ