Arbeitspapier
Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates
The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelsthat form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited supportfor the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni-variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variabIe.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a mul-tivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of thenew legislation.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 03-040/4
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
- Thema
-
ARIMA models
Intervention
Parole abolition
Regression models
Sentence reform
Structural time series models.
Kriminalität
Rechtsprechung
Reform
Virginia
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Sridharan, Sanjeev
Vujic, Suncica
Koopman, Siem Jan
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
-
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2003
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Sridharan, Sanjeev
- Vujic, Suncica
- Koopman, Siem Jan
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2003
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