Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

Arbeitspapier

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelsthat form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited supportfor the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni-variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variabIe.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a mul-tivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of thenew legislation.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 03-040/4

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law ; Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
• Subject: ARIMA models ; Intervention ; Parole abolition ; Regression models ; Sentence reform ; Structural time series models. ; Kriminalität ; Rechtsprechung ; Reform ; Virginia

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Sridharan, Sanjeev ; Vujic, Suncica ; Koopman, Siem Jan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Tinbergen Institute
• (where): Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• (when): 2003

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/85986
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET