Arbeitspapier
Changing with the Tide: Semi-Parametric Estimation of Preference Dynamics
This paper contrasts the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split-sample stated choice experiment on flood risk exposure in the Netherlands. A semi-parametric local multinomial logit model (L-MNL) is developed as an alternative to the Swait and Louviere (1993) procedure to control for preference dynamics within and between samples. The L-MNL model finds empirical support for the discovered preference hypothesis in the form of a declining starting point bias induced by the first choice task. These results differ from the Swait and Louviere procedure which, due to its limited flexibility, accepts the standard assumption underlying microeconomic theory of stable preference parameters throughout the choice sequence. The observed preference dynamics puts the use of choice experiments at risk of generating biased welfare estimates if not controlled for.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 13-074/VIII
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
Valuation of Environmental Effects
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
- Thema
-
Preference dynamics
Discovered preference hypothesis
Coherent arbitrariness
Preference uncertainty
Local multinomial logit model
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Dekker, Thijs
Koster, Paul
Brouwer, Roy
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
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Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Dekker, Thijs
- Koster, Paul
- Brouwer, Roy
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2013