Arbeitspapier
Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey
Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo business survey contains information on the assessments of inventory stocks in manufacturing as well as in retail andwholesale trade. Static factor analysis anda methodbuild ing on canonical correlations are appliedto construct a composite index of inventory fluctuations. Based on recursive estimates, the different variants are assessedas regards the stability of the weighting schemes andthe ability to forecast the "true" inventory fluctuations better than the preliminary official releases.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2004,10
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- Thema
-
inventory investment
revisions
composite indices
canonical correlation
factor models
national accounts data
Ifo business survey
Germany
Lagerzyklus
Konjunkturumfrage
Schätzung
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Knetsch, Thomas A.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2004
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Knetsch, Thomas A.
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2004
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