Arbeitspapier

Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany

Using the exact wording of the ECB's definition of price-stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has decreased in our sample period, particularly in the course of the deep recession implied by the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, even though inflation rates in Germany have been clearly below 2% for several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much higher than 2% over the medium term. We investigate how inflation expectations and the impact of the pandemic depend on personal characteristics including age, gender, education, income, and political attitude.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 2021/12

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
Thema
Credibility of Inflation Targets
Household Inflation Expectations
Expectation Formation
Online Surveys
Covid-19 Pandemic

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Coleman, Winnie
Nautz, Dieter
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics
(wo)
Berlin
(wann)
2021

DOI
doi:10.17169/refubium-31103
Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-refubium-31369-5
Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:21 MESZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Coleman, Winnie
  • Nautz, Dieter
  • Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics

Entstanden

  • 2021

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