Arbeitspapier

Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022. The high correlation between inflation expectations and the actual rate of inflation strongly indicate that inflation expectations have been de-anchored from the inflation target. With increasing inflation, German consumers are more convinced that - in contrast to the ECB's inflation target - inflation will be well above 2% over the medium term.

Sprache: Englisch

Erschienen in: Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 2022/5

Klassifikation: Wirtschaft
Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies

Thema: Credibility of Inflation Targets
Household Inflation Expectations
Expectation Formation

Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung

(wer): Coleman, Winnie
Nautz, Dieter

Ereignis: Veröffentlichung

(wer): Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics

(wo): Berlin

(wann): 2022

DOI: doi:10.17169/refubium-35223

Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/262214

URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-refubium-35508-9

Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

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Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

Coleman, Winnie
Nautz, Dieter
Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics

Entstanden

2022

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Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation

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