Artikel

Inflation Expectations, Central Bank Credibility and the Global Financial Crisis

Long-run inflation expectations should not respond to economic news if the central bank is seen as credibly committed to stabilising inflation. In this paper we find that since the onset of the global financial crisis, medium and long-term inflation expectations implied by inflation swaps in the euro area, United Kingdom and United States have become less responsive to actual inflation and changes in oil and food prices. This suggests that the credibility of the central banks in these economies remains intact, despite large increases in their balance sheets due to unconventional monetary policy measures and the introduction of explicit forward guidance at the zero lower bound. We also find an increase in autocorrelation of inflation expectations, which suggests that shocks have a longer-lasting impact than before the financial crisis.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Journal: Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics ; ISSN: 2235-6282 ; Volume: 150 ; Year: 2014 ; Issue: 2 ; Pages: 55-87 ; Heidelberg: Springer

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Central Banks and Their Policies
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Financial Crises
Thema
Inflation expectations
central bank credibility
financial crisis

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Gerlach-Kristen, Petra
Mössner, Richhild
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Springer
(wo)
Heidelberg
(wann)
2014

DOI
doi:10.1007/BF03399402
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Artikel

Beteiligte

  • Gerlach-Kristen, Petra
  • Mössner, Richhild
  • Springer

Entstanden

  • 2014

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