Arbeitspapier
Recessions and instable estimates of potential output
This paper analyzes how the OECD revises potential output (PO) estimates after recessions. We show that downward revisions are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks while PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable mismeasurement of PO before recessions. In particular, we show that the length of the preceding boom and pre-recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are predictors of post-recession PO revisions. Our results call for improved methods for estimating PO and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis effects of demand shocks.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 639
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
potential output
trend
output gap
hysteresis
OECD
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Dovern, Jonas
Zuber, Christopher
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Heidelberg
- (wann)
-
2017
- DOI
-
doi:10.11588/heidok.00023706
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-237060
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Dovern, Jonas
- Zuber, Christopher
- University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2017
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants
Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession
Global Prediction of Recessions
Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions
Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households
A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data
Predicting GDP components: do leading indicators increase predictability?
Predicting GDP components : do leading indicators increase predictability?
Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output
Aid and growth accelerations: An alternative approach to assess the effectiveness of aid
Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios
The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants
Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession
Global Prediction of Recessions
Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions
Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households
A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data
Predicting GDP components: do leading indicators increase predictability?
Predicting GDP components : do leading indicators increase predictability?
Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output
Aid and growth accelerations: An alternative approach to assess the effectiveness of aid
Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios
The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants
Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession
Global Prediction of Recessions
Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions
Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households
A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data
Predicting GDP components: do leading indicators increase predictability?
Predicting GDP components : do leading indicators increase predictability?
Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output
Aid and growth accelerations: An alternative approach to assess the effectiveness of aid
Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle