Arbeitspapier
Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households
Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fuctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. I document that the survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure ofers a very efcient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many diferent expectations at low cost.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; No. 38
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
- Thema
-
macroeconomic expectations
expectation uncertainty
density expectations
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Dovern, Jonas
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Humboldt University Berlin
- (wo)
-
Berlin
- (wann)
-
2023
- DOI
-
doi:10.18452/25859
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/26650-6
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Dovern, Jonas
- Humboldt University Berlin
Entstanden
- 2023
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