Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news

Arbeitspapier

Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the preceding dispersion in expectations about the indicator value. Uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model, dispersion results from a perceived weak link between macroeconomic indicators and fundamentals that reduces the informational content of indicators, while higher fundamental uncertainty makes this informational content more valuable.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; No. 29

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates ; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
• Subject: expectation dispersion ; uncertainty ; macroeconomic news ; stock market ; event study ; forecaster disagreement

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Born, Benjamin ; Dovern, Jonas ; Enders, Zeno
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Humboldt University Berlin
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2020

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.18452/22284
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229172
• URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/22934-6
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET