Arbeitspapier
Global Prediction of Recessions
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 585
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
- Subject
-
GVAR
recession forecast
QPS
probability forecast
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Dovern, Jonas
Huber, Florian
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
- (where)
-
Heidelberg
- (when)
-
2015
- DOI
-
doi:10.11588/heidok.00018381
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-183811
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Dovern, Jonas
- Huber, Florian
- University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
Time of origin
- 2015