Arbeitspapier

Global Prediction of Recessions

We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 585

Classification
Wirtschaft
Subject
GVAR
recession forecast
QPS
probability forecast

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Dovern, Jonas
Huber, Florian
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
(where)
Heidelberg
(when)
2015

DOI
doi:10.11588/heidok.00018381
Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-183811
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.

Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Huber, Florian
  • University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics

Time of origin

  • 2015

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