Arbeitspapier
Rational expectations and inflation targeting: An analysis for ten countries
In this paper I evaluate inflation targeting for ten countries. The evaluation is based on unconditional as well as conditional measures of the variance of inflation around target. With strict inflation targeting, expectations of the future deviation from target given information about the deviation from the target today should be equal to zero. Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) when calculating the inflation rate, I find that the null hypothesis can be rejected for six of ten countries. In an extended approach I add lagged output gap as an information variable for countries where data was available. I then get the result that rational expectations and strict inflation targeting can be rejected for five countries. Out of the ten countries, the United Kingdom has conducted inflation targeting most in line with the theory of rational expectations and strict inflation targeting, and Poland the least.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2010:17
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Thema
-
inflation targeting
rational expectations
monetary policy
Inflationssteuerung
Rationale Erwartung
Geldpolitik
Verbraucherpreisindex
Welt
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Fromlet, Pia
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Uppsala University, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Uppsala
- (wann)
-
2010
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-131113
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Fromlet, Pia
- Uppsala University, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2010
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Inflation targeting, the natural rate and expectations
Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
Price-level targeting and inflation expectations: Experimental evidence
Does inflation targeting reduce the dispersion of price setters' inflation expectations?
Does inflation targeting reduce the dispersion of price setters' inflation expectations?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Rational Expectations
Anchored inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Inflation targeting, the natural rate and expectations
Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
Price-level targeting and inflation expectations: Experimental evidence
Does inflation targeting reduce the dispersion of price setters' inflation expectations?
Does inflation targeting reduce the dispersion of price setters' inflation expectations?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Rational Expectations
Anchored inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Inflation targeting, the natural rate and expectations
Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
Price-level targeting and inflation expectations: Experimental evidence
Does inflation targeting reduce the dispersion of price setters' inflation expectations?
Does inflation targeting reduce the dispersion of price setters' inflation expectations?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Rational Expectations
Anchored inflation expectations