Arbeitspapier

Global Inflation

This paper shows that in inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, inflations of (22) OECD countries have a common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70% of their variance. This large variance share that is associated to Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to 1980 and down thereafter) but also to fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Second, Global Inflation is, consistently with standard models of inflation, a function of real developments at short horizons and monetary developments at longer horizons. Third, there is a very robust "error correction mechanism" that brings national inflation rates back to Global Inflation. This model consistently beats the previous benchmarks used to forecast inflation 1 to 8 quarters ahead across samples and countries.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1337

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Thema
Inflation
common factor
international business cycle
OECD countries
Inflation
Inflationsübertragung
Inflationskonvergenz
Globalisierung
OECD-Staaten

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Ciccarelli, Matteo
Mojon, Benoît
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
(wo)
Kiel
(wann)
2006

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Mojon, Benoît
  • Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Entstanden

  • 2006

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