Arbeitspapier
Global Inflation
This paper shows that in inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, inflations of (22) OECD countries have a common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70% of their variance. This large variance share that is associated to Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to 1980 and down thereafter) but also to fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Second, Global Inflation is, consistently with standard models of inflation, a function of real developments at short horizons and monetary developments at longer horizons. Third, there is a very robust "error correction mechanism" that brings national inflation rates back to Global Inflation. This model consistently beats the previous benchmarks used to forecast inflation 1 to 8 quarters ahead across samples and countries.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1337
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Inflation
common factor
international business cycle
OECD countries
Inflation
Inflationsübertragung
Inflationskonvergenz
Globalisierung
OECD-Staaten
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ciccarelli, Matteo
Mojon, Benoît
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- (wo)
-
Kiel
- (wann)
-
2006
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ciccarelli, Matteo
- Mojon, Benoît
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Entstanden
- 2006