Arbeitspapier
Pandemic-era inflation drivers and global spillovers
We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020-23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/EUR exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020- 21. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021-22. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the U.S. relative to other countries' inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Staff Report ; No. 1080
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
inflation
international spillovers
global production network
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Di Giovanni, Julian
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
Silva, Álvaro
Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- (wo)
-
New York, NY
- (wann)
-
2023
- DOI
-
doi:10.59576/sr.1080
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Di Giovanni, Julian
- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
- Silva, Álvaro
- Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Entstanden
- 2023
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
International spillovers in inflation expectations
Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge
International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
Pandemic-era uncertainty
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty
The Changing Drivers of Food Inflation – Macroeconomics, Inflation, and War
Inflation expectations spillovers between the United States and euro area
Inflation ExpectationsSpillovers between theUnited States and EuroArea
Spatial Spillovers and the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Pandemic-Era Federal Aid for State and Local Governments
Spillovers from US monetary shocks: Role of policy drivers and cyclical conditions
Explaining Differences in Pandemic Inflation across Countries
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
International spillovers in inflation expectations
Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge
International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
Pandemic-era uncertainty
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty
The Changing Drivers of Food Inflation – Macroeconomics, Inflation, and War
Inflation expectations spillovers between the United States and euro area
Inflation ExpectationsSpillovers between theUnited States and EuroArea
Spatial Spillovers and the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Pandemic-Era Federal Aid for State and Local Governments
Spillovers from US monetary shocks: Role of policy drivers and cyclical conditions
Explaining Differences in Pandemic Inflation across Countries
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
International spillovers in inflation expectations
Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge
International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
Pandemic-era uncertainty
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty
The Changing Drivers of Food Inflation – Macroeconomics, Inflation, and War
Inflation expectations spillovers between the United States and euro area
Inflation ExpectationsSpillovers between theUnited States and EuroArea
Spatial Spillovers and the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Pandemic-Era Federal Aid for State and Local Governments
Spillovers from US monetary shocks: Role of policy drivers and cyclical conditions