Arbeitspapier
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
Using a nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach that fully accounts for the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, the authors analyze US post-crisis business cycle dynamics and provide reference parameter estimates. They find that neither the inclusion of financial frictions nor that of household heterogeneity improve the empirical fit of the standard model, or its ability to provide a joint explanation for the post-2007 dynamics. Associated financial shocks mis-predict an increase in consumption. The common practice of omitting the ZLB period in the estimation severely distorts the analysis of the more recent economic dynamics.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: IMFS Working Paper Series ; No. 143
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- Subject
-
Zero Lower Bound
Bayesian Estimation
Great Recession
Business Cycles
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Böhl, Gregor
Strobel, Felix
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
- (where)
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Frankfurt a. M.
- (when)
-
2020
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-542741
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Böhl, Gregor
- Strobel, Felix
- Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
Time of origin
- 2020
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Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations
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Option pricing, Zero Lower Bound, and COVID-19
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