Fiscal Sustainability, Volatility and Oil Wealth: A Stochastic Analysis of Fiscal Spending Rules

Arbeitspapier

Whether fiscal policy is sustainable depends on a government's future revenue and expenditure streams, both of which are highly uncertain. In commodity-rich countries, this problem is intensified by unpredictable and volatile commodity prices. We show how spending rules for oil income and non-oil primary deficits interact and influence the stochastic distribution of future debt stocks and demonstrate the variance reducing impact of feedback rules for primary deficits in a case study of oil-and-gas exporter Azerbaijan.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 11-068/2

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth ; Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Thema: volatility ; oil wealth ; fiscal sustainability ; Ölpreis ; Volatilität ; Öffentliche Einnahmen ; Schock ; Finanzpolitik ; Nachhaltigkeit ; Aserbaidschan

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): van Wijnbergen, Sweder ; Budina, Nina
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Tinbergen Institute
• (wo): Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• (wann): 2011

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/86806
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ