Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?

Arbeitspapier

From a conceptual point of view there is little consensus of what should be the “ideal indicator” of international cost and price competitiveness as each of the standard measures typically employed has its own merits and drawbacks. This calls for addressing the question from an empirical angle, searching for the indicator that best explains and helps forecast export developments. This paper constitutes a first attempt to systematically compare the properties of the alternative cost and price competitiveness measures of the euro area. Although they diverge sometimes, we find little evidence that there is one indicator consistently outperforming the other in terms of explaining and forecasting euro area exports. This suggests that the measures based on consumer and producer prices, which offer some advantages in terms of quality and timeliness, are good approximations of euro area price and cost competitiveness.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 833

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Trade: Forecasting and Simulation ; Foreign Exchange ; Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Thema: euro area ; exports ; forecast ; price competitiveness ; real exchange rate ; Trade ; Kaufkraftparität ; Außenhandelspreis ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Preiswettbewerb ; Produktionskosten ; Eurozone ; Wirtschaftsindikator

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Ca' Zorzi, Michele ; Schnatz, Bernd
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2007

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153267
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ