Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany

Arbeitspapier

We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information used by the research institutes when they formed their forecasts helps to explain the ex-post realized forecast errors. We identify the information that the research institutes used to set up their quantitative forecasts by applying computational-linguistics techniques to decompose the business-cycle reports published by the research institutes into various topics. Our results show that several topics have predictive value for the forecast errors.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; No. 22

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Thema: Growth forecasts ; Inflation forecasts ; Forecast efficiency ; Business-cycle reports

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Foltas, Alexander ; Pierdzioch, Christian
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Humboldt University Berlin
• (wo): Berlin
• (wann): 2020

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.18452/21974
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/225083
• URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/22674-8
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ