Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Arbeitspapier

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IWH Discussion Papers ; No. 4/2014

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Institutions and the Macroeconomy ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
• Subject: IMF WEO forecasts ; leading indicators ; real-time data

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Drechsel, Katja ; Giesen, Sebastian ; Lindner, Axel
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
• (where): Halle (Saale)
• (when): 2014

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/95949
• URN: urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-28834
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET