Artikel

Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models

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Germany's economic composition is heterogenous across regions, which makes regional economic projections based on German gross domestic product (GDP) growth unreliable. In this paper, we develop forecasting models for Baden-Württemberg's economic growth, a regional economy that is dominated by small- and medium-sized enterprises with a strong focus on foreign trade. For this purpose, we evaluate the backcasting and nowcasting performance of mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with forecast combinations against an approximate dynamic mixed-frequency factor model. Considering a wide range of regional, national, and global predictors, we find that our high-dimensional models outperform benchmark time series models. Surprisingly, we also find that combined forecasts based on simple single-predictor MIDAS regressions are able to outperform forecasts from more sophisticated dynamic factor models.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Journal: Journal of Forecasting ; ISSN: 1099-131X ; Volume: 40 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 5 ; Pages: 861-882 ; Hoboken, NJ: Wiley

Thema
backcasting
Germany
high dimensional
nowcasting
regional

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Kuck, Konstantin
Schweikert, Karsten
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Wiley
(wo)
Hoboken, NJ
(wann)
2021

DOI
doi:10.1002/for.2743
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Original beim Datenpartner anzeigen

Objekttyp

  • Artikel

Beteiligte

  • Kuck, Konstantin
  • Schweikert, Karsten
  • Wiley

Entstanden

  • 2021

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