Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0

Abstract 4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees, and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire-burned area and its effects, which could feed back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m - 1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m - 1. The results support a positive grass–fire feedback across the region and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0 ; volume:17 ; number:11 ; year:2024 ; pages:4643-4671 ; extent:29 ; Geoscientific model development ; 17, Heft 11 (2024), 4643-4671 (gesamt 29)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Shuman, Jacquelyn K. ; Fisher, Rosie A. ; Koven, Charles ; Knox, Ryan ; Kueppers, Lara ; Xu, Chonggang

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2408051453116.615265757047
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 14.08.2025, 10:52 AM CEST