Arbeitspapier
Testing for short and long-run causality: The case of the yield spread and economic growth
To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different forecast horizons. Second, the framework of Geweke (1982) and Hosaya (1991) is used to construct a simple test for causality in the frequency domain. This methodology is applied to investigate the predictive content of the yield spread for future output growth. For U.S. data we observe good leading indicator properties at frequencies around one year and typical business cycle frequencies. Using German data we found a (rather weak) predictability at low frequencies only.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: SFB 373 Discussion Paper ; No. 2001,96
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
- Subject
-
Causality
Time series
Frequency domain
Prediction
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Breitung, Jörg
Candelon, Bertrand
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
- (where)
-
Berlin
- (when)
-
2001
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10051133
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Breitung, Jörg
- Candelon, Bertrand
- Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
Time of origin
- 2001