Arbeitspapier
How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA
This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational expectations. Both rolling regressions and state-space models are employed. The results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We also provide evidence that the impact of the output gap on inflation has increased in recent years. Overall, diminished inflation persistence emphasizes the role of credible monetary policy in inflation dynamics.
- ISBN
-
978-952-6699-09-7
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 6/2013
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Model Construction and Estimation
- Thema
-
inflation
Phillips curve
time-varying parameters
survey expectations
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Oinonen, Sami
Paloviita, Maritta
Vilmi, Lauri
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Bank of Finland
- (wo)
-
Helsinki
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Oinonen, Sami
- Paloviita, Maritta
- Vilmi, Lauri
- Bank of Finland
Entstanden
- 2013
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Money-market segmentation in the euro area: what has changed during the turmoil?
Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area
Inflation expectations and regime shifts in the euro area
The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics
Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations
Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results
Inflation targeting: analyzing indicators of inflation in Finland
Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve
Staggered prices and trend inflation: Some nuisances
Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation
Learning, inflation expectations and optimal monetary policy
The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area
Money-market segmentation in the euro area: what has changed during the turmoil?
Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area
Inflation expectations and regime shifts in the euro area
The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics
Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations
Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results
Inflation targeting: analyzing indicators of inflation in Finland
Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve
Staggered prices and trend inflation: Some nuisances
Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation
Learning, inflation expectations and optimal monetary policy
The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area
Money-market segmentation in the euro area: what has changed during the turmoil?
Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area
Inflation expectations and regime shifts in the euro area
The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics
Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations
Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results
Inflation targeting: analyzing indicators of inflation in Finland
Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve
Staggered prices and trend inflation: Some nuisances
Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation
Learning, inflation expectations and optimal monetary policy