How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational expectations. Both rolling regressions and state-space models are employed. The results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We also provide evidence that the impact of the output gap on inflation has increased in recent years. Overall, diminished inflation persistence emphasizes the role of credible monetary policy in inflation dynamics.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-952-6699-09-7
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 6/2013

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Model Construction and Estimation
• Subject: inflation ; Phillips curve ; time-varying parameters ; survey expectations

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Oinonen, Sami ; Paloviita, Maritta ; Vilmi, Lauri
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Bank of Finland
• (where): Helsinki
• (when): 2013

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/212246
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET