Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes

Arbeitspapier

Sticky-price models with rational expectations fail to capture the inertia in US inflation Models with backward-looking expectations capture current inflation behavior but are unlikely to fit other monetary regimes This paper seeks to overcome these problems with a near-rational model of expectations In the model agents make univariate forecasts of inflation: they use information on past inflation optimally but they ignore other variables The paper tests sticky-price models with near-rational expectations for two periods in US history the post-1960 period of persistent inflation and the period from 1879 to 1914 when inflation was not persistent The models fit the data for both periods; in contrast both rational-expectations and backward-looking models fail for at least one period.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Paper ; No. 435

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft
• Thema: Inflation ; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion ; Rationale Erwartung ; Neue klassische Makroökonomik ; Phillips-Kurve ; Preisrigidität ; Theorie ; USA

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Ball, Laurence
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics
• (wo): Baltimore, MD
• (wann): 2000

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/72022
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ