Arbeitspapier

Firing versus continuing employment if an economic setback is expected

A simple model evaluating a firm’s optimal employment reaction to an imminent recession is presented. Firing costs shelter employment – and this effect is typically amplified by uncertainty due to an option value of waiting. However, this job protection effect is reduced if the expected probability of a setback increases, and if the expected duration and size of a recession grows. If a severe recession is expected with a high probability the option to wait with firing looses its value, thus, immediate layoffs and market exits become the optimal strategy even before the recession turns out to be actual.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics ; No. 2009,18

Classification
Wirtschaft
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Labor Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
Subject
Firing costs and uncertainty
probability
duration and size of recession

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Göcke, Matthias
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Philipps-University Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics
(where)
Marburg
(when)
2009

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Göcke, Matthias
  • Philipps-University Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics

Time of origin

  • 2009

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