Diderot's rule

Abstract: "Like many new products, newly released creative goods such as books, music records and movies are sometimes 'surprise' hits but often flops. Experimental and empirical research suggests that it is hard to predict the demand for a new creative good, and therefore its success, even for industry experts. Rules of thumb on the quantitative properties of demand uncertainty exist for various creative industries - including a rule by Denis Diderot (1763) according to which one out of ten published books is a commercial success. Yet, representative evidence on any industry's new-product success rate is scarce. This paper studies new-product success in a random sample of novels. Its empirical strategy to identify success - a simple characterization of author-publisher bargaining combined with a parsimonious model of new-product diffusion - is based on the common observation that word-of-mouth is a crucial success factor in creative industries. Parametric and semi-parametric estimation resu

Object Details

• Alternative title: Diderot's Daumenregel
• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource, 31 S.
• Language: Englisch
• Notes: Veröffentlichungsversion

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Discussion Papers / Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Forschungsschwerpunkt Märkte und Politik, Abteilung Wettbewerb und Innovation ; Bd. 2008-13

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft
• Keyword: Innovation ; Kultursektor ; Vertrauensgüter ; Innovationsdiffusion ; Erfolgsfaktor ; Deutschland ; Neues Produkt ; Kulturelle Einrichtung ; Vertrauensgut ; Erfolgsfaktor ; Viral Marketing ; Deutschland

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2008
• Creator: Beck, Jonathan
• Contributor: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH

Further information

• URN: urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-258564
• Rights: Open Access unbekannt; Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 25.03.2025, 1:56 PM CET