Arbeitspapier

Optimal discretionary policy and uncertainty about inflation persistence

This paper studies optimal discretionary policy with parameter uncertainty about inflation inertia. Optimal policy rules and impulse responses are presented within a hybrid New-Keynesian model estimated for the euro area by Smets (2003). We find that it may be optimal for policy to respond more aggressively to cost-push shocks and real interest rate shocks in the presence of uncertainty about inflation inertia, depending on the form of the central bank’s objective function. Moreover, in the cases where optimal policy is not certainty equivalent, we find that inflation returns slightly more gradually to equilibrium following a shock when the degree of inflation inertia is uncertain.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 540

Classification
Wirtschaft
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
Subject
Inflation persistence
monetary policy
uncertainty
Inflation
Geldpolitik
Risiko
Theorie

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Moessner, Richhild
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
European Central Bank (ECB)
(where)
Frankfurt a. M.
(when)
2005

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Moessner, Richhild
  • European Central Bank (ECB)

Time of origin

  • 2005

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