German Exports to the Euro Area - A Cointegration Approach

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyses the determinants of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. Four conditional error-correction models based on regionally disaggregated data are developed. One specification includes EMU industrial production and a real external value based on consumer prices, the other three use different EMU investment aggregates, the corresponding real external values and a proxy for European market integration to explain exports. The models perform equally well in a number of diagnostic tests. For short-term forecasts, however, the model using industrial production seems to be the best, since it outperforms the other models in terms of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts. Furthermore, the explanatory variables of this equation (industrial production and consumer prices) are easier to forecast than investment aggregates and the corresponding prices.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IMK Working Paper ; No. 6/2005

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Subject: Export Function ; Income and Price Elasticity of Exports ; Intra-EMU Trade ; Error Correction Model ; Forecasting

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Stephan, Sabine
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
• (where): Düsseldorf
• (when): 2005

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105874
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2008081492
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET