Uso de agregados monetarios como indicadores de la evolución futura de los precios al consumidor: Crecimiento monetario y meta de inflación

Arbeitspapier

We construct inflation pressure indicators based on the long-run relationship that exists between monetary aggregates and prices, once it is adequately adjusted to account for the scale of transactions, as well as the opportunity cost of holding money. To that end, an extensive long-run econometric analysis of money demand is carried out for Mexico using the monetary aggregate M1. Based on it, two indicators are calculated, the money gap and the m* indicator. Such gap measures deviations of real M1 from its relationship with its long-run determinants. The m* indicator is based on the estimation of the price index which is congruent with the quantity of M1 in the economy once it is adjusted for the long-run tendency of its determinants considering its long-run coefficients. Our results indicate that monetary policy has been congruent with the inflation target of Banco de México.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Spanisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Papers ; No. 2015-14

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Demand for Money ; Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
• Thema: money demand ; inflation ; money gap ; autoregressive distributed lag model ; cointegration ; general-to-specific ; stability ; structural change

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Ramos-Francia, Manuel ; Noriega-Muro, Antonio E. ; Rodríguez-Pérez, Cid Alonso
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Banco de México
• (wo): Ciudad de México
• (wann): 2015

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/129956
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ