Efectos de la incertidumbre de los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento económico de México

Artikel

We inquire whether the uncertainty of international oil prices affected Mexico's economic activity during 1983:2-2017:4. To measure such impact we use a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in-mean process that captures the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our results show that the said uncertainty has a negative influence on Mexico's economic activity. Further, they reveal the presence of asymmetric effects, as the output growth rate increases (decreases) after a negative (positive) oil price shock. These results highlight the importance of adopting public policies aimed at mitigating the effects of oil market uncertainty and help stabilize economic activity.

Object Details

• Language: Spanisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Journal: Investigación Económica ; ISSN: 2594-2360 ; Volume: 78 ; Year: 2019 ; Issue: 309 ; Pages: 80-106 ; Ciudad de México: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Faculdad de Economía

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
• Subject: Oil price volatility ; economic activity ; multivariate var-garch in-mean ; asymmetric effects ; Mexico

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Rodríguez Benavides, Domingo ; López Herrera, Francisco
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Faculdad de Economía
• (where): Ciudad de México
• (when): 2019

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.22201/fe.01851667p.2019.309.70120
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/217359
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET