Artikel

Efectos de la incertidumbre de los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento económico de México

We inquire whether the uncertainty of international oil prices affected Mexico's economic activity during 1983:2-2017:4. To measure such impact we use a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in-mean process that captures the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our results show that the said uncertainty has a negative influence on Mexico's economic activity. Further, they reveal the presence of asymmetric effects, as the output growth rate increases (decreases) after a negative (positive) oil price shock. These results highlight the importance of adopting public policies aimed at mitigating the effects of oil market uncertainty and help stabilize economic activity.

Language
Spanisch

Bibliographic citation
Journal: Investigación Económica ; ISSN: 2594-2360 ; Volume: 78 ; Year: 2019 ; Issue: 309 ; Pages: 80-106 ; Ciudad de México: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Faculdad de Economía

Classification
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Subject
Oil price volatility
economic activity
multivariate var-garch in-mean
asymmetric effects
Mexico

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Rodríguez Benavides, Domingo
López Herrera, Francisco
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Faculdad de Economía
(where)
Ciudad de México
(when)
2019

DOI
doi:10.22201/fe.01851667p.2019.309.70120
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Artikel

Associated

  • Rodríguez Benavides, Domingo
  • López Herrera, Francisco
  • Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Faculdad de Economía

Time of origin

  • 2019

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