Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis

Arbeitspapier

This paper assesses the impact of the first wave of the pandemic on the local economies of one of the hardest-hit countries, Italy. We combine quarterly local labor market data with the new machine learning control method for counterfactual building. Our results document that the economic effects of the COVID-19 shock are dramatically unbalanced across the Italian territory and spatially uncorrelated with the epidemiological pattern of the first wave. The heterogeneity of employment losses is associated with exposure to social aggregation risks and pre-existing labor market fragilities. Finally, we quantify the protective role played by the labor market interventions implemented by the government and show that, while effective, they disproportionately benefitted the most developed Italian regions. Such diverging trajectories and unequal policy effects call for a place-based policy approach that promptly addresses the uneven economic geography of the current crisis.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: GLO Discussion Paper ; No. 875

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
• Thema: impact evaluation ; counterfactual approach ; machine learning ; local labor markets ; COVID-19 ; Italy

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Cerqua, Augusto ; Letta, Marco
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Global Labor Organization (GLO)
• (wo): Essen
• (wann): 2021

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/235475
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ