Artikel
The odds of profitable market timing
This statistical study refines and updates Sharpe's empirical paper (1975, Financial Analysts Journal) on switching between US common stocks and cash equivalents. According to the original conclusion, profitable market timing relies on a representative portfolio manager who can correctly forecast the next year at least 7 times out of 10. Four changes are made to the original setting. The new data set begins and ends with similar price-earnings ratios; a more accurate approximation of commissions is given; the rationality of assumptions is examined; a prospective and basic Monte Carlo analysis is carried out so as to consider the heterogeneous performance of a number of portfolio managers with the same forecasting accuracy. Although the first three changes improve retrospectively the odds of profitable market timing, the original conclusion is corroborated once more.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Journal: Journal of Risk and Financial Management ; ISSN: 1911-8074 ; Volume: 14 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 6 ; Pages: 1-14 ; Basel: MDPI
- Klassifikation
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Wirtschaft
- Thema
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commission
forecasting accuracy
market timing
Monte Carlo analysis
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Buzzacchi, Luigi
Ghezzi, Luca
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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MDPI
- (wo)
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Basel
- (wann)
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2021
- DOI
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doi:10.3390/jrfm14060250
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Buzzacchi, Luigi
- Ghezzi, Luca
- MDPI
Entstanden
- 2021
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