COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock

Arbeitspapier

Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity of employees to work from home and against those with a low capacity.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 2021-3

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis ; Expectations; Speculations ; Macroeconomics: Production ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure ; Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion ; Labor Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
• Subject: COVID-19 ; reallocation shock ; business expectations ; working from home ; Survey of Business Uncertainty

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Barrero, Jose Maria ; Bloom, Nicholas ; Davis, Steven J. ; Meyer, Brent H.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• (where): Atlanta, GA
• (when): 2021

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.29338/wp2021-03
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/244306
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET