Arbeitspapier

Temporary and persistent fiscal policy shocks

Abstract This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the effects of temporary versus persistent fiscal policy shocks. Using data from the US I show that short lived fiscal expansions have a positive effect on output and consumption; while persistent fiscal shocks generate negative effects on consumption and - to a lesser extent - on output. Persistent fiscal expansions are associated with an increase in precautionary savings, collapse in consumers' confidence and an increase the yield curve's term premium. Consistently with consumption smoothing, short-lived fiscal expansions generate a temporary deficit in the current account, while persistent fiscal shocks leave the external balance unaffected. I find evidence of non linearity in the effects of temporary and persistent fiscal shocks according to (i) the level of public debt and (ii) the state of the business cycle. Persistent fiscal shocks have larger negative effects on consumption and output if they take place at high levels of public debt, possibly due to the higher costs of fiscal stabilization. The state of the business cycle is also very relevant. Persistent fiscal shocks generate negative multipliers in times of economic boom, but these negative multipliers disappear in periods of recession when credit constraints are more likely to bind. On the other hand, temporary fiscal shocks have positive effects both in times of expansion and in times of recession, but with the multipliers being way larger in the latter case. Differently with what hypothesized by the earlier literature on non-Keynesian fiscal effects, I find little evidence that these effects are asymmetric depending on the size of the shocks.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; No. 06/2013

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Economic Impacts of Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Thema
fiscal policy
public debt
fiscal multipliers
non-Keynesian effects
business cycle
Finanzpolitik
Schock
Makroökonomischer Einfluss
Multiplikator
Öffentliche Schulden
USA

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Sola, Sergio
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
(wo)
Geneva
(wann)
2012

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Sola, Sergio
  • Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies

Entstanden

  • 2012

Ähnliche Objekte (12)