Arbeitspapier

Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Labor Reallocation, and Rural-Urban Migration in China

This paper analyses the way households in rural China use rural-urban migration and off-farm work as a response to negative productivity shocks in agriculture. I employ various waves of a longitudinal survey to construct a panel of individual migration and labour supply histories, and match them to detailed weather information, which I use to instrument agricultural productivity. For identification, I exploit the year-by-county variation in growing season rainfalls to explain within-individual changes in labor allocation. Data on days of work supplied to each sector allow to study the responses to weather shocks along both the participation and the intensive margin. Results suggest that farming activity decreases by 4.5% while migration increases by about 5% in response to a 1-standard deviation negative rainfall shock. Increment in rural-urban migration derives from both longer spells in the city as well as raise in the likelihood to participate in the urban sector. I find interesting heterogeneous responses across generations driven by age-specific migration costs and changes in the relative productivity of sectors. Finally, land tenure insecurity seems to partially prevent households from freely reallocating labor away from farming in bad times.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: CReAM Discussion Paper Series ; No. 04/18

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Time Allocation and Labor Supply
Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
Thema
Agricultural productivity
Labor supply
Rural-urban migration
China

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Minale, Luigi
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Centre for Research & Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London
(wo)
London
(wann)
2018

Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:22 MESZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Minale, Luigi
  • Centre for Research & Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London

Entstanden

  • 2018

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