Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill

Arbeitspapier

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International Monetary Fund are used as a benchmark against which to derive a comparative measure of the accuracy of ADO forecasts, or skill. ADO is found to be ‘more skillful' than WEO in estimating both current-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index (CPI) inflation of Asian economies. WEO may have an edge over ADO when it comes to year-ahead GDP forecasts, while ADO's inflation forecasts tend to be more accurate. By and large, and notwithstanding much heterogeneity across economies and years, both sets of forecasts display a high degree of inaccuracy during the crisis years.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ADB Economics Working Paper Series ; No. 386

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Subject: economic forecasts ; forecast skill ; Asian Development Outlook ; Asian Development Bank ; World Economic Outlook ; International Monetary Fund

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Ferrarini, Benno
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Asian Development Bank (ADB)
• (where): Manila
• (when): 2014

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/109499
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET