Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model

Arbeitspapier

Since the mid-1970s, firm entry rates in the United States have declined significantly. This also holds for other OECD countries over the past years. At the same time, these economies experienced a gradual process of population aging. Applying a tractable life-cycle model with endogenous firm dynamics, we show that falling US firm entry rates can be explained by demographic transition. Specifically, our model simulations suggest that aging can account for up to one third of the observed decrease in US firm entry rates. In addition to the negative effects of a slowdown in working-age population growth on firm entry, our analysis points out that an increase in longevity may also be an important factor contributing to the decline in business dynamism, weighing on both firm entry and exit rates.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-3-95729-689-4
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 15/2020

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Business Taxes and Subsidies including sales and value-added (VAT) ; Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods ; Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data) ; Fiscal Policy ; Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General ; Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights: General
• Subject: Life-Cycle model ; Population aging ; Business dynamism ; Firm entry

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Röhe, Oke ; Stähler, Nikolai
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Deutsche Bundesbank
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215408
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET