Demographics and the current account

Artikel

This paper investigates the relationship between demographics and the current account. We analyze the impact of recent demographic changes and provide a forecast of its future impact. Overall, we find a strong and robust, non-linear demographic effect. In particular, we find a positive association between the current account and the share of a population's prime-age individuals and a negative association with the share of the elderly. Our forecast suggests that, given the dramatically aging population in most industrialized countries, demographics will likely decrease the current account balance in the near future in those countries.

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• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Journal: Aussenwirtschaft ; ISSN: 0004-8216 ; Volume: 69 ; Year: 2018 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 45-76 ; St.Gallen: Universität St.Gallen, Schweizerisches Institut für Aussenwirtschaft und Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (SIAW-HSG)

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Neoclassical Models of Trade ; Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements ; Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Subject: demography ; aging ; current account ; savings

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Gerigk, Joschka ; Rinawi, Miriam ; Wicht, Adrien
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Universität St.Gallen, Schweizerisches Institut für Aussenwirtschaft und Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (SIAW-HSG)
• (where): St.Gallen
• (when): 2018

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/231255