Arbeitspapier
Memory, Expectation Formation and Scheduling Choices
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is probabilistic and subject to error. We apply the model to scheduling choices of commuters and demonstrate that memory constraints lead to sub-optimal choices. We analytically and numerically show how memory-based adaptive expectations substantially increase commuters' willingness-to-pay for reductions in travel time variability, relative to the rational expectations outcome.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 14-154/VIII
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
Expectations; Speculations
Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
- Thema
-
Memory
Transience
Expectation formation
Adaptive expectations
Retrieval Accuracy
Scheduling
Value of Reliability
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Koster, Paul
Peer, Stefanie
Dekker, Thijs
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
-
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2014
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Koster, Paul
- Peer, Stefanie
- Dekker, Thijs
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2014
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