Arbeitspapier
Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy
This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and out-of-sample forecasts exhibit smaller prediction errors.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 233
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Output gap
unobserved component models
survey data
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Flaig, Gebhard
Ploetscher, Claudia
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2000
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Flaig, Gebhard
- Ploetscher, Claudia
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2000
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