Arbeitspapier

Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

It is widely recognised that as the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This paper presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation. Attention is focussed on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition we explore the impacts of alternative hypothesis about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions about point estimates of projected social costs.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: New Zealand Treasury Working Paper ; No. 02/28

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Thema
Population
projections
stochastic simulation
social expenditure
fiscal costs
New Zealand

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Creedy, John
Scobie, Grant M
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
New Zealand Government, The Treasury
(wo)
Wellington
(wann)
2002

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Creedy, John
  • Scobie, Grant M
  • New Zealand Government, The Treasury

Entstanden

  • 2002

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